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US Treasury Yields

A simple daily snapshot of the four benchmark US Treasury yields I care about. Updated once per US trading day; data from Yahoo Finance, refreshed by a scheduled GitHub Action after the New York close.

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Yield curve

Latest closes plotted by maturity. An upward-sloping curve is normal; flat or inverted usually means investors expect slower growth or rate cuts ahead.

Curve steepness — 30Y minus 3M

How much more the 30-year Treasury yields than the 3-month T-bill. When the short end drops it usually means the market thinks the Fed will cut rates. When the long end rises it usually means the market is worried about inflation or the amount of government debt being issued. Below zero (“inverted”) has historically been a recession warning.

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Today's read

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How to read this. Yields are quoted in percent (annualized). A move of one hundredth of a percent equals one basis point (bp) — so +5 bp means the yield rose by 0.05%. Red = yields rose that day (bad for existing bond holders and for mortgage rates); teal = yields fell.

About the 3M yield in the spread. Yahoo publishes ^IRX as a discount yield (360-day year, quoted off face value) — the old T-bill market convention. Coupon Treasuries like the 30Y are quoted as a bond-equivalent yield (365-day year, based on price paid). To compute the curve steepness on an apples-to-apples basis, the 3M is converted from discount to BEY before subtracting from the 30Y — the same thing Bloomberg and the US Treasury Bulletin do. Formula: BEY = (365 × d) / (360 − d × 91), with d as a decimal. The conversion uplift varies with the rate level and narrows the 30Y–3M spread vs. a naive subtraction.